With less than a month to go, it's crunch time for Melbourne Cup hopefuls. Each week from early October through to Cup Day tells a new story — who's firming, who's fading, and which races reveal the Cup's next hero. Here's the week-by-week roadmap every racing fan should have bookmarked.
Week 1: 7–13 October — The Bart Cummings Fallout
The staying picture took shape early when Valiant King claimed The Bart Cummings at Flemington (2520 m), securing a golden ticket into the Cup. The win confirmed his stamina and fitness, while runners-up Future History and Serpentine also impressed.
Form takeaway: The Bart Cummings remains the most reliable local indicator of Cup performance — especially for European imports on their second prep. Treat that win as bankable form as we head into November.
Week 2: 14–20 October — The Caulfield Cup Test
Saturday 18 October brings the Caulfield Cup (2400 m) — Australia's premier 2400 m handicap remains the most telling Cup yardstick: high pressure, deep field, and re-handicapping implications. Expect Without A Fight to defend his reputation, while Soulcombe, More Felons, and Breakup (JPN) aim to prove their staying power.
Form takeaway: Look for late momentum — horses who finish powerfully at Caulfield often carry it into Flemington.
Week 3: 21–27 October — Geelong & The Valley Double
Wednesday 22 October hosts the Geelong Cup. This mid-week race has a habit of unearthing Cup stars. It's historically favoured internationals like Dunaden and Media Puzzle.
Friday night 24 October, the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 m). Now a ballot-exempt race, the Valley's tighter turns test tactical smarts under lights. Look for horses that adapt to tempo changes and still finish off powerfully — that's the hallmark of a genuine two-miler.
Form takeaway: A strong Valley run or Geelong win often seals a Cup spot and signals top-four potential.
Week 4: 28 October – 3 November — The Cox Plate and Final Acceptances
Saturday 25 October's Cox Plate (2040 m). Not a classic staying race, but elite class travels. A top run here from stayers can stamp Cup credentials (think Gold Trip in 2022). After that, attention turns to final acceptances, barrier draws, and late scratchings.
Form takeaway: Balance of class and endurance defines Cup winners — the Cox Plate and Moonee Valley runs often tell you who's got both.
Cup Week: 4 November — The Race That Stops the Nation
Tuesday 4 November 2025. The barriers open, and all the form lines, sectionals, and lead-ups converge. From early March prep races to these October stayers' tests, it all funnels into two miles of pure theatre at Flemington.
Reading the Form Like a Pro
Golden Ticket Holders: Winners of the VRC-listed exemptions go straight into the Cup field — no ballot worries.
Internationals: Track how internationals perform first-up in Australia; acclimatisation matters.
Weights & Penalties: Post-race penalties can shift Cup weights dramatically.
Stamina Signals: Strong late sectionals in Geelong or Valley Cups are key Cup indicators.
Timing the Peak: A strong finish over 2400 m+ in mid-October is the strongest historical predictor of Cup success.